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Larry Hotz, Kentwood Real Estate, Greenwood Village, Colorado
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You are here: Home / Denver Real Estate News / Is Denver Real Estate Ready To Crash?

Is Denver Real Estate Ready To Crash?

February 19, 2022 By Sean And Janet Willcox Leave a Comment

Sean Willcox, Broker at Coldwell Banker

Veteran Realtor Sean Willlcox  of Coldwell Banker sees no signs of an imminent Denver Real Estate Crash.

“Will this Denver real estate market crash? ” That’s the most commonly asked question I am answering for my clients these days. So, I thought’s share my answer with this All Denver Real Estate Blog. 

 
I have addressed this question in my writing many times individually.  I understand the reason for the question!  When a real estate market goes off the tracks, as so many fear now, there are usually commonalities and warning signs. Let’s consider a few of the warning signs we have seen in other Denver real estate market crashes.

Only 2 Real Estate Crashes in 50 Years

Denver Metro Home Prices continue to rise steadily. That creates extra equity in most homes as a cushion against foreclosure. Source is ReColorado, the Denver multi-list service.

Over the past 50 years real estate values in Denver have risen on average by 6.3% a year.   Twice in those 50 years, the market has lost value.  The first was from 1987 to 1989, when the Denver market lost about 10% across the board.   During these years, the Denver economy was highly dependent on oil, gas and mining which all went through a large-scale reduction.  Simultaneously, the Savings and Loan crises unfolded due in part to risky, low or no down payment loans and adjustable-rate mortgages.  Adding to this was a 3-year run, prior to the fall, of both residential and commercial builders overbuilding relative to the demand.

 
The next time we saw a loss in market value was 2006 to 2009, when prices fell about 20%.  Again, we saw low loan standards with the average down payment being below 1%, huge speculative buying by investors, adjustable-rate loans and an inventory of homes at 7 months, prior to the fall in prices, with the high point being more than 15 months of inventory.

Signs of Denver Real Estate Market Crash

Supply of homes for sale in Denver continues to shrink to all-time low records. So, prices cannot decline so long a as demand outstrips inventory. Multiple offers are now result in price bidding wars.

In both previous market declines, the above warning signs were showing for at least 2 years prior to falling prices.  Currently, builders are able to construct less than half the homes they can sell in any given month.  Largely due to the labor shortage, they have no hope of increasing their output in the foreseeable future.  Also, the average down payment of a homebuyer today is 17% of purchase prices. Because, 20% of purchases over the past eight years have been all Cash!  That shocks me too!

 
Here’s another thing to consider.   Adjustable-rate mortgages are at an all-time low. In addition, lending standards to obtain a loan are near an all-time high.  The most telling statistic is the low inventory of homes that has hovered around 1 to 2 months for 5+ years running and appears to be headed for one of its lowest readings ever. For example, we are currently suffering from only a 2-week supply of homes as we begin 2022.   A healthy market, where prices are firm or rising slowly, will usually have an inventory of 4 to 5 months of unsold homes. 
 
I am not saying we have a market that will never again see a slow down or reduction in prices. It likely will.  However, myself and many real estate economists and experts, do not see any signs that would indicate a market decline is on the near horizon.  With Denver interest rates on the rise, many are hoping this will at least slow the pace of the current market.  Only time will tell!

Good Reasons to Still Consider a Move

Need More Space – Less Space – Different Layout – Relocating To Another State Or To The Other Side Of Town? Whether you are considering a move to an existing property or a new build, attached or detached living, we know the locations!  We also have a nationwide network of trusted brokers to assist in relocations out of Denver.  Please contact us early in your thought process to maximize options and minimize costs.  Just use the form below to contact us.

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Copyright 2000-2023 by Loren Hotz Owner of All Denver Real Estate. All Rights Reserved. Loren (Larry) is a Broker Associate of The Hotz Group at Kentwood Real Estate. Some articles on this real estate blog were written by Brokers employed by various brokerages including Kentwood Real Estate as identified. Market statistics for the City and Denver Suburbs were provided by the Denver MLS search company, ReColorado. This site uses Google Analytics to track web visitors and enhance their experience. See GA Privacy Policy here