2009 Denver Real Estate Market
By(Exclusive to All Denver Real Estate – Ed: Case-Shiller has already reported that Denver home prices dropped the least of all national real estate markets in October. But, October is their latest data set. Here our own Lon Welsh shows that there is more evidence that prices are turning upward and reversing their downward trend. He bases this on statistical analysis of our worst market segments in the metro area.)
By Lon Welsh, Your Castle Real Estate and All Denver Real Estate Contributor
Some Home Prices Begin Appreciation
As a statistician by education and background, I am drawn to make conclusions about the Denver real estate market based on numbers and charts. Let’s compare the overall housing market in metro Denver to the subsections that have suffered the worst price declines and the most foreclosures. Consider these following graphs compiled from Denver Metrolist MLS data.
Comparing 2007 to 2008, the average home price across the metro dropped 13%, to $267,000: a 13% decrease. Comparing 2008 to 2009 we saw prices drop about 1% further, to $263,000. While many of the national headlines are negative, the Denver market has stabilized.
While it’s certainly too soon to call it a trend, we noticed that the average sales price in MLS region AUN (Aurora North) and DSW (Southwest Denver) increased in June. After significant declines in 2006 and 2007, prices were generally stable in 2008. Prices are now edging upwards in these distressed areas! The chart shows performance in Aurora North; Denver Southwest was similar.
Southwest Denver and North Aurora suffered the most price decline. Those real estate markets have now reversed. Click chart for bigger version.
The inevitable conclusion is the the price declines have reversed in the worst hit Denver markets. These are real estate markets that saw saturation foreclosures and short sales. Prices plummeted. But, now we can that the the prices have reversed. This bodes well for the Denver real estate market as a whole in 2010. While extrapolations to exact numbers would be fruitless, the trend is clearly up!
Nominal dollars or real dollars???
Good to see some positive real estate figures. In Spain prices started falling some three years ago. There has been a massive over supply of new build projects, many of which have been empty since completion. Having said that at these lower prices we are seeing an increase in sales enquiries!! It will be some time before we see property price increases but an increase in activity would be very well received. Best wishes for 2010
Its nice to see some better Real Estate figures.I really appreciate the hard work you had done here!!I will keep an close look for all the updates of your blogs.Nice informative blog thanks for posting.
Thank you for this informative analysis. It’s great to see some life in the Denver market, however, I am personally a bit skeptical. We will see how 2010 plays out.